I like to review the year that was to see where we have been and hopefully get some insight as to where we are going. In looking over the stats for the year I am starting to see some balancing of the market. I don't know if we have at this point but we appear to be headed that way. I think by June we should have a good idea of where we stand.
A lot will depend on the so called "tidal wave" of foreclosures that is headed our way. Ask anyone heavily involved in that from the banks to the listing side and they all seem to agree on two key points. First that the "title wave " is coming. Second that most will be higher priced homes. Typically the answer to that is $400,000 plus. That is the part I am most curious about is will that number hold up? It seems that many of the lower priced homes were involved in some of the fraud that was taking place along with entire neighborhoods. My guess would be a larger section will be affected from $2500 on up. The reason being is the job loss and another group of arm products that are set to expire. The word on the street is that there are 7 million foreclosures on the horizon. If that is correct it could be roughly 5 1/2 times larger than 2005. The 2nd half of 2009 seemed to finally clear a lot of that up. So if there are that many more homes coming on it will really affect values in all areas of real estate.
The other question will be how much of that will be commercial buildings? With the shift in the job market many business' had expanded to far and are now scaling back. Below is year end data for The Minneapolis St. Paul real estate market. There are always differences from Lakeville to Bloomington to Anoka so this is just an over all view.
13 County Metro Area
According to data released by the three Twin Cities area REALTOR® associations:
In the 13-county metro area, total pending sales for 2009 ended at 52,167 – up 18 percent over 2008 and the highest number of units sold since 2005.
The median sales price in the 13-county metro area in 2009 was $166,000 - down 14.9 percent from 2008. However, prices have seen stabilization recently. December’s median sales price was only down 3 percent from one year prior.
2009 traditional median home price: $204,000 (-8.3 percent from one year ago)
2009 median sales price for lender-mediated: $124,000 (-14.2 percent from one year ago)
In 2009, 43 percent of closed sales were lender-mediated compared with 31.4 in 2008.
2009 closed sales were up 16.7 percent over 2008.
At the start of 2010 active listings were down 22.3 percent from a year ago.
2009 new listings decreased 11 percent from 2008, the lowest showing since 2003 and the third consecutive year of substantial decline.
Average days on market were at 132 in Dec. 2009 compared with 148 in Dec. 2008.
Based on information from the “2009 Year End Housing Sales Statistics Press Release” published in concert by the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR), Saint Paul Area Association of REALTORS® (SPAAR) and North Metro REALTORS® Association (NMRA). Data collected from the REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE OF MINNESOTA, INC. for residential properties in the 13-county region exclusively.
I think it is very encouraging but there are still a lot of unanswered questions at this point. One thing is for sure, it will be an interesting year in real estate for sellers as well as buyers.
Follow me on facebook - Tom Sommers Edina Realty Twitter - usearealtor
or any of my Web Sites:
www.tomsommers.com
www.allmnhomes.com
www.tomsommers.edinarealty.com
No comments:
Post a Comment